Nov 21

First things first:

My 60-min Trend System issued a cover short signal (** not really, see below). See here and here. (These updates are sent out as part of my Trend System Notifications).

But not really.

I have a short term divergence in place, but it is not an official cover signal. I am actually still expecting a lower low to take place before a tradeable bottom. My main 60-min indicator has most definitely not bottomed yet.

So why the cover signal?

1. Gap down Monday open gives a nice cover opportunity
2. This is Thanksgiving week. It will be light volume and likely lots of out of nowhere reversals.
3. I am leaving mid-day Wednesday. So while we might get a lower low (like my indicator expects) it might happen while I am out.
4. Based on observations 2 and 3, we might have a rally the rest of today/tomorrow. So this is likely the best obvious opportunity I will have in the next 2 days to lock profits.

I am completely happy being neutral the rest of this week.

If we get a very compelling bottom by Wednesday morning, I might consider going long (since we have highly bullish seasonality Wednesday and Friday), but it would have to be very compelling.

So as of right now, I am in wait and see mode, and not looking to jump into anything before next week.