I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Sunday, November 13, 2011

BPSPX Update

Here is an update to my original BPSPX study: The BPSPX and the Secular Bear Count. Think of this as a companion piece to my previous post: Yet another reason why I don't think we saw 'the' top (3)

The main points are:
  • Bull markets do not end on strong technicals, they end on weak technicals. We always look for divergences in the weekly/monthly MACD (but should be using PPO instead), weekly/monthly RSI, the Advance/Decline Line, New Highs/New Lows, etc
  • Why would we expect the BPSPX (Bullish percentage of SPX stocks) to also end on a peak? The answer is: we shouldn't. And the May 2010 peak registered the highest BPSPX reading ever. This is yet *another* reason why I don't think the May peak was the 'top'
  • As pointed out in my previous post, it makes more sense to think of bull markets ending on 'tiredness' / 'going out with a whimper'. Where price makes a higher high but the internals do not. We should not only see divergence on the CPCE and VIX but I contend on the BPSPX as well

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