I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Old Man VIXer!!!

Yeah, another lame pun (similar to this one The Market Moves Vixenishly). Anyhow, I still think we have made a bottom in the VIX like I called in the post linked above.

So the question is: Does the VIX have to bottom and the market have to top at the same time? The answer is a pretty obvious: NO.

I think we have two more waves left in P2 (see this post Revisiting the Count), a B and the last C wave. I think the final C wave will make some *very modest* higher highs. In fact, I fully expect it to look like a double top. But I think these waves will be pretty volatile, moreso than the last series of waves.

Which fits with the count I should below. I think the last 2 waves in the market correspond with the pink 1-2 below, and the next 2 waves (the last B and C) in the market will form a blue 1-2 on the VIX. This will correspond with a large increase (wave 3) in volatility as P3 down gets underway in the market.

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